Aug 20, 2024

U.S. apple production forecast to reach 260 million bushels

Following record-breaking production last year, U.S. apple growers expect another high-performing year, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association (USApple).

U.S. apple growers are expected to produce 259.5 million 42-pound bushels for the 2024/25 crop year (CY), a 10.1% decrease compared to the 2023/24 season, according to USApple’s analysis of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) figures.

The report was released at the organization’s Aug. 14-16 annual Outlook Conference in Chicago.

U.S. production

USApple’s 259.5 million bushel prediction differs from USDA’s forecast, which predicts apple growers to produce 282 million bushels for the 2024/25 CY, a 2% decrease compared to the 2023/24 season.

USApple states the figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only examines the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes production from states outside of the top seven and adds their production back into USDA’s figures, according to a news release.

It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they’re seeing in the field every day, according to the release.

“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” Chris Gerlach, the report’s author and USApple’s vice president of insights and analytics, said in a news release.

“Despite various challenges, the resilience and dedication of our growers have led to another promising year for apple production,” Gerlach said in the release. “The data we’ve gathered not only highlights the strength of our industry, but also underscores the importance of innovation and adaptability in ensuring a bountiful harvest.”

Varietal mix

At the varietal level, Galas are expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced. The following is a listing of the top five varieties’ share of the market:

• Gala (17%)
• Red Delicious (12.3%)
• Granny Smith (10%)
• Honeycrisp (9.8%)
• Fuji (9.4%)

In general, the varieties on the rise include Honeycrisp, Pink Lady/Cripps Pink and Cosmic Crisp. Fuji, Rome and “other” varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2019/20 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include Gala and Red Delicious, according to the release.

“We still see strong Honeycrisp production, but it’s tempered this year,” Gerlach said in the release. “With volumes aligning more closely with Gala and Red Delicious, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future.”

Trade

According to USDA trade data, fresh apple exports totaled 46.4 million bushels in the 2023/24 CY). This is around 14 million bushels higher than 2022/23 export levels – an astonishing 44% year-over-year increase, according to the release.

During the same period, fresh apple imports dropped by around one million bushels, a 15% decline. The joint effects of increasing exports and decreasing imports caused the already net positive fresh apple trade balance to grow to more than 42 million bushels.

The surge in fresh apple exports is largely attributed to the abundant domestic supply, competitive pricing abroad, and favorable positive trade policies, according to the release.

“Thanks to the removal of previously imposed tariffs on our apples, exports to India are up nearly 4,000% year over year. We are optimistic that this critical market will continue to grow in volume and value,” Gerlach said in the release.

The Outlook Report is based on recently released USDA estimates.

After the presentation of USDA’s numbers, USApple members at the Chicago meeting met in-person to discuss current growing conditions to formulate a more up-to-date production estimate.

The final USApple 2024/25 crop year forecast is an adjustment of the USDA numbers based on those conversations, according to the release.

Global production

According to United Nations (UN) data, worldwide apple production surpassed 5 billion bushels for the first time in 2022 (the latest available datapoint).

In 2022, China alone was responsible for producing 2.5 billion bushels, around half of the world’s total supply. In 2021, Turkey overtook the U.S. to become the world’s second largest apple producer and maintained that spot in 2022, even widening the gap between us (with 253 million bushels, 5% of world production). The U.S., in the third spot, was credited with 232 million bushels and 4.6% of world production. Rounding out the top five were Poland (4.4%) and India (2.7%).

USApple’s Industry Outlook 2024 provides data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces, from political headwinds to weather events, that shape the U.S. apple industry.

Launched in 2022, USApple’s Newton Database & Dashboard is a one-stop-shop for apple-related statistics. Newton consolidates data from USApple and multiple USDA sources in to one place, providing users updated information on apple production, utilization, trade, prices, storages, movement, economic impacts and more. The USApple member benefit gives users the ability to view preset reports or create custom queries for download, according to the release.

USApple is a national trade association representing all segments of the apple industry. Members include 36 state and regional apple associations, representing 26,000 apple growers throughout the country and more than 3,700 apple-related companies. USApple’s members collectively grow more than 10 billion pounds of apples a year on average, supporting about 150,000 jobs and generating more than $8 billion in total wages and $23 billion in economic activity.

The conference is in its 129th year.