Jan 7, 2026

2026 vegetable industry outlook: How labor, technology and trade will shape the year ahead

With the dawn of the new year, America’s vegetable and leafy-green growers find themselves balancing steady consumer demand with rising operational pressures.

The past year reinforced a familiar truth for the sector: while produce remains essential to healthy eating, growers face extraordinary uncertainty from labor volatility, trade disputes and climate disruption.

Automation, AEWR and adaptation define the new year

In 2026, the conversation has shifted from survival to strategy, anchored by automation, policy reform and growing consumer interest in health, convenience and sustainability.

Labor costs and wage rate reform

Among all the industry’s challenges, perhaps none weighs heavier on growers’ minds than labor.

“Our growers tell us that the current Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWR) are simply unsustainable, and they are forced to make tough decisions on the future of their operations as a result,” said Christina Morton, director of communications, Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association (FFVA).

In Florida — one of the nation’s most labor-intensive regions — growers have endured AEWR increases of nearly 10% this year, following 3% in 2024 and 15% in 2023.

“These volatile wage increases are announced in the middle of our growing season, after most of Florida’s contracts and prices have been set,” Morton said. “The timing leaves growers absorbing costs they can’t pass along.”

FFVA continues to push Congress “to immediately pause increases to the AEWR until a permanent wage mechanism is established,” she said. “Current talks with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Department of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer give growers optimism that their leadership will lead to necessary changes.”

Tech to offset labor pressure

Rising wages and tightening margins are pushing growers to adopt mechanization faster.

“Growers are always looking for ways to implement new technologies to create efficiencies on farm,” Morton said.

She pointed to joint projects with researchers at University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Science on “smart robotics that can automate crop production and pest management tasks,” as well as the university’s upcoming Center for Applied Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture, which will advance crop-specific automation research.

“We’re excited about innovations like machine-harvestable blueberry varieties and robotics for pest management,” she said.

However, Morton noted that mechanization and automation are long-term and expensive strategies that do not provide immediate solutions for growers. That’s why FFVA is urging Congress to direct Farm Bill resources toward specialty-crop mechanization research and development to make such tools accessible and scalable.

Precision agriculture

Beyond Florida, growers across the West and Midwest are embedding technology into their production systems.

Sarah Gonzalez, director of communications and public affairs, International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA), said automation has moved from pilot project to practical integration.

“In vegetable production, vision-guided and laser weeding platforms are being adopted more widely, particularly in organic and reduced-herbicide systems,” she said.

The next frontier is data connectivity.

“Remote sensing, in-field cameras and AI-driven analytics are guiding variable-rate irrigation, nutrient applications and biological or chemical interventions,” Gonzalez said. “The goal is creating closed data loops from scouting to action, so automation not only performs the task but also captures data to inform the next management decision.”

Health-conscious consumers

While the production side battles cost inflation, consumer appetite for fresh vegetables remains robust.

“By 2026, we expect ‘eating through the lens of health’ to drive even stronger demand,” Gonzalez said.

The shift toward functional and convenient eating continues to shape retail strategy. While only 29% of adults’ snacks are vegetables, 57% of Americans say they would choose vegetables as a snack if they were convenient, Gonzalez said.

This trend points to growth in ready-to-eat, ready-to-cook and snack-sized produce, which bridge nutrition, time savings and affordability.

Gonzalez urged suppliers to evolve beyond price competition.

“Suppliers must go beyond price discussions and focus on value — positioning products in ways that strengthen a retailer’s brand, improve operational efficiency or deliver clear differentiation,” she said. “That approach turns produce from a ‘nice-to-have’ into an everyday essential.”

Organic vegetables gain momentum

The organic vegetable segment continues to expand, capturing a healthy 15.5% of retail produce sales, according to Tom Chapman, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association (OTA).

“Organic fresh produce hit $21.5 billion in sales in 2024, up 5.2% from the prior year,” he said. “We expect continued growth of 4.5% to 5% in 2025 and anticipate similar growth in 2026.”

The strongest retail gains are happening in the South and Midwest, signaling new regional opportunities. OTA’s new “Seal Makes It Simple” campaign — launched in September 2025 across six U.S. cities — was designed to help drive awareness and build additional trust in the USDA Organic seal.

Still, Chapman noted organic growers face the same structural hurdles as conventional growers, only more magnified.

“Given the higher labor intensity of organic, all labor costs disproportionately affect organic producers,” he said. “We’re seeing strong investment in robotics, mechanical weeders and biological inputs to reduce dependence on labor.”

Climate pressures

Weather volatility remains an unpredictable variable for growers. Hurricanes, floods and prolonged heat waves have tested operations in recent years, but Morton said growers remain adaptable.

“Weather has certainly been an issue for growers in the past,” she said. “Growers are accustomed to handling weather challenges, adapting quickly when needed and remain optimistic as we head into the next planting season.”

Chapman noted organic producers are leaning on soil health to withstand climatic stress.

“Organic has generally fared better in times of weather uncertainty, benefiting from the increase in water-holding capacity of organic soil in times of excess or scarcity,” he explained. “But extreme moisture still creates challenges. Quality control is difficult when dealing with extreme moisture given the few fungicide and nitrogen inputs.”

Policy wins for organic producers

Despite the volatility, 2025 delivered policy gains for organic growers.

“OTA successfully secured the inclusion of Organic Certification Cost Share in the Reconciliation Bill passed this summer,” Chapman said. “This program helps offset the added costs of certification — especially critical for small and transitioning growers.”

OTA is also supporting the Transition to Organic Partnership Program (TOPP), which provides “mentorship, technical assistance, networking and market education for new and transitioning producers.”

Looking ahead to 2026, Chapman said OTA’s priorities include “more market data and better National Resources Conservation Service programs to support organic producers’ unique needs.”

Trade fairness and export markets

Trade policy remains another flashpoint.

“The termination of the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement by the administration signals a positive movement toward fairer competition,” Morton said. “The Department of Commerce’s action demonstrates that U.S. trade laws can protect American farmers and ensures that U.S. consumers have access to locally grown fruits and vegetables.”

With the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review on the horizon, FFVA is laser-focused on ensuring trade-remedy relief for seasonal and perishable fruit and vegetable growers is effective and enforceable.

Chapman said organic exports tell a similar story of both promise and pause.

“2024 was a strong sales year for organic produce, growing by 16% over the previous year,” he said. “Looking at the first half of 2025, exports slowed to 3%, with several major markets down. Still, there is opportunity. Developing the Mexico and Asian markets offers the greatest export potential.”

Marketing and branding

Beyond policy, consumer connection remains central to growth for the industry.

Morton credits the Fresh From Florida campaign with keeping locally grown vegetables visible and competitive.

“It’s a recognizable brand that makes Florida produce easy to identify in store,” she said. “Not only does it signify that a customer is getting the highest quality, freshest produce, it also provides marketing support to growers and keeps American consumers buying Florida produce.”

Similar programs are available in other states.

2026 outlook

In 2026, the specialty crop industry stands at an inflection point.

Growers are investing in automation, pushing for AEWR reform, and expanding organic and value-added product lines to align with evolving consumer preferences.

“Organic produce is at the nexus of personal and planetary health,” Chapman said. With continued investment in infrastructure and research, he believes the sector “can help close the gap with conventional produce pricing.”

Gonzalez added, “Collective innovation will define success and help keep fresh produce at the center of the shopping basket.”

In short, growers enter 2026 with challenges on every front — but also with clear signs: to modernize, mechanize and market smarter.

If they can turn efficiency and sustainability into a unified story, fresh fruits and vegetables may emerge from this period of disruption stronger than ever.