U.S. apple exports rise as 2026/27 production forecast declines

U.S. apple production is forecast at 263 million bushels for the 2026/27 crop year, down 7% from last year and 3% below the five-year average, according to the U.S. Apple Association’s (USApple) Industry Outlook 2026 report.

The forecast uses USDA production estimates along with USApple analysis for states not included in USDA’s annual survey. USApple said it will not publish a final adjusted national crop estimate this year because not all regions participated in its adjustment process.

Washington remained the largest producing state, with USDA forecasting approximately 176 million bushels, down 2% from last season. New York was forecast at 32 million bushels, down 10%, while Michigan was projected at 25 million bushels, down 1%.

Spring freeze damage contributed to larger projected declines in Pennsylvania and Virginia. USDA forecast Pennsylvania production at 5 million bushels, down 58%, and Virginia at 1.8 million bushels, down 48%.

“The story this season really varies by region,” said Chris Gerlach, USApple vice president and author of the report.

Gala is expected to remain the leading U.S. apple variety at nearly 42 million bushels, or about 16% of production. Over the past five years, production of Granny Smith, Honeycrisp, Cosmic Crisp and Pink Lady/Cripps Pink has increased, while Gala, Red Delicious and Fuji production has declined.

Fresh apple exports also increased during the 2025/26 crop year. Exports reached nearly 45 million bushels, up 2%, while imports declined 12% to approximately 4 million bushels. The resulting trade surplus totaled nearly 41 million bushels and was valued at more than $1 billion.

Mexico accounted for 39% of U.S. apple exports and Canada accounted for 19%. Together, the two markets purchased nearly $650 million in U.S. fresh apples.